Traffic Simulation and Hypothesis Testing

Statistics and Simulation (Part 5) under reconstruction for 2015


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Period
Week 11-13: 19 March - 8 April
Exercises

During Part 5, you will be working on one major project, plus a couple of smaller exercise sheets.

  1. The project assignment (Exercise sheet) including instructions for presentations 26 March, 9 April, and 16 April.
  2. Confidence Interval (repetition Friday 20 March 2015)
  3. Hypothesis Testing (preparation for project analysis) for discussion Friday 27 March and Wednesday 8 April 2015
  4. Probability Theory (repetition, additional theory)
Mandatory Coursework

The major project is mandatory group work, with three oral presentations in Tuesday classes. See the requirements page for coursework details.

Session 1 (Friday 20 March 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Confidence interval

Review videos on estimation.

We will be working on the repetition exercise on Confidence Interval.

Session 2 (Wednesday 25 March 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Traffic simulation, agent based modelling

Traffic Simulation (Agent-Based Modelling) MPEG4 / OGG 8:11 PDF
Vehicle Modelling I (Perception) MPEG4 / OGG 8:14 PDF
Vehicle Modelling II (Action) MPEG4 / OGG 6:17 PDF
Session 3 (Thursday 26 March 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Traffic Simulation

Oral presentation on Traffic Simulation Model.

Session 4 (Friday 27 March 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Tests (Introduction) MPEG4 / OGG 7:13 PDF Frisvold and Moe Chapter 10
Burden of Proof (Type I and Type II Errors) MPEG4 / OGG 8:43 PDF
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Interval MPEG4 / OGG 7:14 PDF
The Mean with Known Variance (An example of hypothesis testing) MPEG4 / OGG 8:40 PDF
The Alternative Hypothesis (One-sided or Two-sided Test?) MPEG4 / OGG 10:08 PDF
p-value (A generic statistic for hypothesis testing) MPEG4 / OGG 8:09 PDF
Session 5 (Wednesday 8 April 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Testing of the Mean (The case with unknown variance) MPEG4 / OGG 7:36 PDF Frisvold and Moe Chapter 11
Comparing Two Treatments MPEG4 / OGG 8:55 PDF
Comparison without σ (Hypothesis Testing with Two Means and Unknown Variance) MPEG4 / OGG 6:28 PDF
Testing with Binomial Proportions (The Case with Large Sample) MPEG4 / OGG 5:37 PDF
Testing with the Binomial Distribution (Binomial Proportions with Small Sample) MPEG4 / OGG 11:31 PDF
Session 6 (Thursday 9 April 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Traffic Simulation

Oral presentation on the Simulator Implementation.

Session 7 (Friday 10 April 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Hypothesis Testing

Review videos from last week. Work on the analysis for your project.

Session 8 (Wednesday 15 April 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Bayes' equation, independent events

Independent and Dependent Events (A Simple Example with Independent Events) MPEG4 / OGG 6:10 PDF Frisvold and Moe pages 36-46
Statistical Dependency (And Examples with Dependent Events) MPEG4 / OGG 12:12 PDF
Bayes' Law (Calculations with Dependent Events) MPEG4 / OGG 5:23 PDF
Session 9 (Thursday 16 April 2015) Videos Time Slides Reading

Key Concept Traffic Simulation

Oral presentation on the Analysis of the Traffic Simulation.


Hans Georg Schaathun [email protected] / Siebe van Albada [email protected]